The Hungry World

INTRODUCTION

For the poor, the near future seems bleak. While world food prices have declined, they remain close to their 2008 peaks in many poor countries; as a result, the number of hungry people has grown by 40 million; and with prices for seeds and fertilizers more than doubling since 2006, many poor farmers cannot increase production. This means, according to FAO, that some one billion people worldwide are going hungry.

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Bad weather, violent conflict and volatile market prices could force a drop off in the global production of cereal crops this year, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted after already warning that some one billion people worldwide are going hungry. Drought and high food prices in much of the developing world, coupled with a diversion to biofuels and the disincentive of high planting costs in the West, are likely to reduce grain production in most of the world’s major producers.

Published last February, the FAO’s report warned that acute food shortages persist in 32 countries worldwide and pointed to the situation in the Gaza Strip as cause for particular concern. In Eastern Africa, more than 18 million people face serious food insecurity due either to conflict, unrest, adverse weather or a combination of the factors; while in Southern Africa, the total number is estimated at some 8.7 million. The report stressed that in Kenya, Somalia and Zimbabwe, the situation is very serious due to drought, civil unrest and economic crises.

The outlook for cereal crop production in low-income countries with food shortages is gloomy, with a likely reduction in maize crops in Southern Africa, and prolonged dry spells affecting wheat farmers in Asia. Almost half of China’s winter wheat harvest is already suffering from severe drought. Likewise, India is experiencing a lack of rainfall. In South America, 2008 wheat production was halved by drought in Argentina, and persistent dry weather is damaging prospects for the region’s 2009 coarse grains harvest.

UNAFFORDABLE FOOD
The report noted that, despite the decline in international food prices in the second half of 2008, domestic prices remain very high in several developing countries, making food unaffordable to low-income groups. In Southern Africa and Central America, prices of their main food commodities have continued to rise or have not decreased in recent months, and in Western and Eastern Africa, January prices were significantly higher than last year’s same period. Imported rice and wheat prices, staples in these sub-regions, are also on the rise, and remain high in several poor Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

The FAO report pointed out that, while conditions are generally favorable for winter wheat throughout Europe and the United States, the amount of planted area in these countries has declined, reflecting the prospect of sharply reduced profits compared to last year and persistently high input costs. FAO also forecasted further increases in the use of cereals for biofuel production with a total of 104 million tons, up 22% from the 2007/08 estimated level, representing almost 5% of the world’s cereal production. The United States alone is expected to increase production of biofuels to roughly 93 million tons, which is up 19% from the 2007/08 level. Source: FAO; edited by Manuel Giraldes

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