In 2012, typhoon Haikui battered the megacity of 12 million people for eight days, but when tropical storm Ondoy hit Manila in 2009 and a month’s worth of rain fell in a few hours, the city came close to catastrophe. Nearly 80% was flooded, 246 people died and hundreds of thousands had to be evacuated.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the U.N.’s climate science panel, life in the world’s coastal cities is about to get much worse as temperatures rise a further 4C over the century. Manila, Guangzhou, Lagos, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata, Shanghai, Mumbai, Tianjin, Rangoon, Bangkok and 100 others in high-risk tropical and subtropical regions are most vulnerable. They can expect to be swamped more often by tidal surges, battered by ever stronger typhoons and storms, and hit by deeper droughts.
Not only will food in cities become more expensive as crops are hit by weather extremes but cities, such as Manila, can expect more power shortages, disease, and interruption of water supply; nights will become hotter and they will have fewer cool days. Add to that the pollution cloud that already hangs over most Asian cities, and urban life may become unhealthy, unpalatable and more unpredictable, the report suggests.
“Heat stress, extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, as well as drought and water scarcity, pose risks in urban areas, with risks amplified for those lacking essential infrastructure and services or living in exposed areas,” says the report, which makes this forecast with “very high confidence.”
As the Philippines recovers from the estimated $36B (£22B) of damage caused last November by supertyphoon Haiyan (known locally as Yolanda) – the most powerful storm ever to have made landfall – the state meteorological office, PAGASA, says that climate change is already hitting the country hard.
“There has been a significant increase [in the last 30 years] in the number of hot days and warm nights and a decreasing trend in the number of cold days and cold nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are getting warmer. Extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent. In most parts … the intensity of rainfall is increasing. The number of cyclones is less than it was, but they are getting stronger,” said a PAGASA spokesman.
The government is urgently drawing up detailed maps of all vulnerable areas, but says that the money is just not there to protect 100 million people living in both cities and rural areas. “Rich countries tell us to become climate resilient. We agree, but who pays? We have received possibly $5M, from the World Bank for studies to adapt to climate change, and that is all,” said Ilaga.
